The news of a possible union between Serbia and Republika Srpska in early May – published as an analysis by an Italian media outlet – has been widely circulated in the Albanian media. Despite Milorad Dodik’s repeated threats of Republika Srpska’s secession from Bosnia and Herzegovina, experts believe the chances of this union occurring in the near future are zero.
Jona Plumbi
Alarm: Vučić to declare the new Yugoslavia on 5-6 May!
This was the latest ‘alarming’ announcement from Albanian media regarding developments in the region. The news originated from an article published by Italian media about the situation in the Western Balkans. It was then widely disseminated in Albanian-language media.
Italian media: Vučić in danger, set to announce ‘New Yugoslavia’ in May! – Top Channel
Italian media: Vučić may declare ‘New Yugoslavia’ in May! – 360 Gradë
Italian media: Vučić a threat to the Balkans, plans to announce ‘New Yugoslavia’ in May – Zëri
Italian media: Vučić could declare ‘New Yugoslavia’ on May 5-6 – Epoka e re
‘Vučić will establish ‘New Yugoslavia”, Albanian general reveals alarming scenarios – Report TV
Vučić’s alarming messages, Italian media: Could declare ‘New Yugoslavia’ on May 5-6! – Syri
According to these reports, the risk is the secession of Republika Srpska from Bosnia and Herzegovina and its union with Serbia, which they claim will happen on May 5-6, when Dodik has announced that he will make an important announcement for all Serbs.
However, according to experts and representatives of civil society in Serbia, this is unlikely to occur.
‘The chances of Republika Srpska seceding from Bosnia and Herzegovina and joining Serbia in the near future are zero.’– stated Ledion Krisafi, a researcher.
Krisafi explained that merely having the desire to separate a territory from a state is not sufficient, as international recognition is also necessary, at least from the majority of the world’s states.
‘With the exception of Russia, no other state has any special relationship with Republika Srpska, so there is no support for secession other than from Russia, and so far, there has been no clear public stance supporting secession.’- argued Krisafi.
According to him, Vučić would not support such a decision because otherwise, he would face strong sanctions from the EU and the USA, which would damage Serbia’s relationship with the investor and one of its largest trading partners.
Nikola Petrović, from the ISAC Foundation in Serbia, provides another argument as to why this unification scenario is unlikely to happen.
‘There are two major reasons. The first and most important is that Serbia is one of the signatories of the Dayton Agreement, which established Bosnia and Herzegovina in its current form. Violating this agreement would put both Serbia and Republika Srpska under extraordinary pressure from the international community. The second reason is that such a decision would be nullified by the High Representative of Bosnia and Herzegovina, making it invalid under the law and international standards.’ – Nikola Petrović, ISAC Fund Serbia
According to him, Vučić’s statement about ‘difficult days ahead and that Serbia will fight and win,’ as cited in the Italian media, should be seen as a common way for the Serbian president to boost national morale, especially before the upcoming elections in Belgrade and other municipalities in Serbia.
*Vučić’s message shared in the Italian media
Such narratives about the secession of Republika Srpska and its unification with Serbia are not new and have appeared in various forms before.
https://faktoje.al/keqinformimi-me-deklaraten-e-dodik-perhap-tituj-per-lufte-te-re/
The Researcher, Ledion Krisafi, explains that although Bosnia and Herzegovina are a state that does not function in the format in which it was established by the Dayton Agreement in 1995, which practically divided the country into two parts, the only way for it to secede is by changing this agreement with the approval of Western powers, which is unlikely to happen in the foreseeable future.
